Egypt Faces Wheat Supply Challenges Amid Black Sea Disruptions

Egypt is experiencing significant wheat supply challenges due to disruptions in the Black Sea region, where Russia and Ukraine are key suppliers. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, ongoing since 2022, has intensified attacks on commercial ships and ports in the Black Sea, particularly in October, affecting global wheat exports. This has added to existing pressures on supply chains in the Middle East, which are also dealing with disruptions in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.

Russia and Ukraine are Egypt's primary wheat suppliers, providing around 85% of Egypt's wheat imports in 2025. Russia exports over 70% of its grain through Black Sea ports, but August saw a 40% decrease in Russian wheat exports due to the conflict. Ukraine, meanwhile, can only export about a third of its available wheat due to Russian strikes, with 85% of its agricultural exports typically passing through Black Sea ports. Alternative routes cannot fully compensate for this loss in export capacity.

Egypt's wheat imports have decreased to approximately 12.5 million tons in the 2025-2026 fiscal year, down from 13.2 million tons the previous year. The Egyptian government has not imported wheat since May, relying instead on private sector imports amid the escalating conflict and shipping risks in the Black Sea. The government has increased its focus on domestic production, which rose by over 6.5% annually to exceed 10 million tons in the 2025-2026 fiscal year. Additionally, Egypt imported around 2 million tons of wheat from February to May in anticipation of disruptions. Egypt's total annual wheat requirement is about 20 million tons, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates for the 2025-2026 marketing year.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi recently acknowledged a 40% increase in food and commodity prices, attributing this to the global trade dynamics exacerbated by the Black Sea conflict. The Egyptian government is exploring strategies to mitigate these challenges, including bolstering domestic production and strategic reserves.

**Context/Background**: Egypt's reliance on imported wheat makes it vulnerable to global supply chain disruptions, particularly those stemming from geopolitical conflicts. The ongoing tensions in the Black Sea region highlight the need for Egypt to diversify its wheat sources and enhance domestic production capabilities to ensure food security.